AUD/USD

Wednesday's Australian Q2 CPI release is the single most important near-term catalyst: a hotter-than-expected core print (above 3.7% YoY) could reprice RBA rate hike expectations and fuel a clean break above 0.7000, while a soft print risks a swift reversal back toward the 200-day SMA at 0.6900.

AUDUSD is pinned at the critical 0.7000 psychological resistance level — a zone that has consistently rejected rallies — while the RBA's Q2 CPI print on Wednesday will determine whether bulls can sustain a breakout or bears reclaim the 200-day SMA at 0.6900.

Main Risk

Australian Q2 CPI Release (Wednesday)

A core CPI print above the expected 3.7% annual rate would force hawkish RBA repricing and could propel AUDUSD through the 0.7000 resistance and toward the 2026 swing high near 0.7185; a miss below 3.5% would trigger sharp selling.