AUD/USD

The 0.7000 handle is the defining battleground: a clean weekly close above it would confirm a trend continuation toward 0.7120+, but the pair has now failed there twice this week, making the risk of a pullback to the 200-day SMA at 0.6880 very real.

AUD/USD is pinned at the pivotal 0.7000 psychological round number — a level it has repeatedly failed to close above convincingly — leaving the pair in a tug-of-war between a structurally weaker USD and escalating Middle East risk-off headwinds.

Main Risk

Middle East Escalation — US Strikes on Iran / Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Fresh US military strikes on Iranian coastal assets and a reinstated naval blockade have sent Brent crude surging ~17% over two weeks, threatening to reignite global inflation and triggering classic risk-off selling that hits commodity-linked currencies like AUD hardest.