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Neutral
AUD/USD
Archived analysis from Aug 3, 2026, 8:26 PM
The 100-day SMA at ~0.7050 is acting as a firm ceiling; only a clean daily close above it would shift the near-term bias decisively bullish and open the door to 0.7120+.
AUDUSD is consolidating at the key 0.7000 round number after being rejected at the 100-day SMA (~0.7050), with the pair caught between a hawkish RBA and a recovering USD following the Fed's 9-3 hawkish hold.
Main Risk
China Manufacturing PMI Miss
A disappointing China Manufacturing PMI print has already pressured AUDUSD today, and any further deterioration in Chinese demand data would undercut the Aussie's commodity-currency premium and risk a retest of 0.6900.
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