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AUD/USD

Bullish

Archived analysis from Jul 31, 2026, 8:24 PM

The Fed's 9-3 hold with three hawkish dissenters has paradoxically weakened the USD, pushing AUD/USD above the critical 0.7000 round number; however, US military strikes on Iran and weak Chinese PMI data are capping near-term upside.

AUD/USD has reclaimed and consolidated above the key 0.7000 psychological level, a six-week high, driven by broad USD weakness following the Fed's hold decision and supportive RBA hawkish rhetoric from Governor Bullock.

Main Risk

US-Iran Geopolitical Escalation & Safe-Haven USD Bid

Heavy US strikes on Iran are sustaining a geopolitical risk premium that could trigger a sharp safe-haven rally in the USD, threatening the AUD/USD break above 0.7000 and risking a swift reversal toward the 0.6950 support zone.

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