USD/JPY

USDJPY has cleared the critical multi-decade high at 162.84, a level that capped price for weeks — this breakout opens the path toward the 1986-era highs near 165.00 and beyond, but BOJ intervention risk escalates sharply above 163.50.

USD/JPY has broken above the prior multi-decade resistance at 162.84, now trading at 163.22, with persistent yen weakness driven by the 275bps US-Japan interest rate differential keeping the bull trend intact.

Main Risk

BOJ Verbal / Physical Intervention

Japanese authorities intervened aggressively in 2024 when USDJPY broke above 160.00; with the pair now at 163.22, MoF/BOJ warnings and direct USD-selling intervention risk is at its highest since those episodes, capable of driving a 300–500 pip snap-back.