USD/JPY

The yen is at its weakest levels since 1996 and a clean break above the 162.84 multi-decade high would open the door to uncharted territory, with BoJ policy normalisation remaining the only credible structural brake on further USD/JPY upside.

USD/JPY is trading at 162.75 — above the pivotal 162.50 intraday resistance — coiling just beneath the multi-decade high at 162.84, with price action tightening in a way that raises the probability of an upside breakout.

Main Risk

Bank of Japan Emergency Rate Hike or Verbal Intervention

With USD/JPY pressing multi-decade highs near 162.84, the risk of a sudden BoJ rate hike surprise or coordinated MoF/BoJ verbal intervention — similar to the September 2022 episode — could trigger a sharp 300–500 pip reversal.