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Bearish
USD/JPY
Archived analysis from Aug 5, 2026, 1:28 PM
The US stepped in to support the yen for the first time in nearly three decades — a landmark policy shift that fundamentally changes the intervention risk premium priced into any long USD/JPY position.
A historic US-Japan coordinated currency intervention has driven USD/JPY back to the 157 handle, with the pair now capped below the 1-hour 100-period SMA at 159.85, structurally shifting momentum in favour of yen strength.
Main Risk
Coordinated US-Japan Intervention Risk
The New York Fed reportedly sold euros (not dollars) to fund yen purchases, marking an unprecedented structural backstop for JPY; any renewed USD/JPY rally above 159.85 (100-period SMA) risks triggering a second intervention wave.
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