USD/JPY

The most important thing to know right now: the Japanese Ministry of Finance appears to have intervened on July 30, crashing USDJPY to 157.97, and the U.S. Treasury has also signalled potential yen market action — making any rally back toward 160.00–161.00 a high-risk short entry zone.

USDJPY is bearish as suspected BoJ/MoF intervention drove price to a two-month low of 157.97 on July 30, and with the BoJ holding rates while signalling new warnings, the pair faces heavy institutional selling pressure near the 159.50 prior support-turned-resistance level.

Main Risk

BoJ rate decision – no change, yen carry trade revival

The BoJ held rates unchanged at its July 31 meeting, keeping the USD-JPY rate differential wide and providing a floor for USDJPY that could fuel a bounce back above 161.00 if intervention fears fade.