Gold

The US-Iran conflict is paradoxically bearish for gold: surging oil prices are fuelling inflation expectations that are driving Fed rate-hike bets (September hike now ~53% probability), overwhelming gold's traditional safe-haven bid and pressing it to nine-month lows.

Gold is trading at a nine-month low near $4,009, having broken below the key $4,000 psychological level as escalating US-Iran military strikes push oil prices 30% higher from July lows, reigniting Fed rate-hike fears and crushing real-yield support for bullion.

Main Risk

US-Iran Conflict Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Closure

Iran's interception of four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the declared collapse of the ceasefire threatens a sustained energy price shock that would force central banks to tighten, turning rate expectations structurally against gold.