Gold

The FOMC decision tomorrow (July 29) is the single binary catalyst that will break gold's $3,980–$4,100 range: a surprise rate hike would pressure XAU/USD toward the $3,900 round-number support, while a hold or dovish pivot could relaunch a run toward $4,300+.

Gold is pinned near $4,027 in a tight consolidation band below the key $4,100 resistance level, caught between rising Fed rate-hike expectations (35.8% probability of a 25bp hike per CME FedWatch) and persistent safe-haven demand from the Iran war and record global debt levels.

Main Risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision — Surprise 25bp Hike

CME FedWatch now prices a 35.8% chance of a 25bp hike at tomorrow's decision — a confirmed hike would strengthen the USD, push real yields higher, and threaten a swift breakdown below the $4,000 psychological floor.