Gold

The FOMC decision on July 29 is the single most important near-term catalyst: a hold with a hawkish tone could break $4,000 support, while any dovish pivot signal would likely propel gold back above $4,100 and toward $4,236.

Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between persistent Fed rate-hike risk — with CME markets pricing a 66.3% chance of no cut on July 29 — and structural central bank demand, pinning price near the World Gold Council's $4,100 fair value midpoint.

Main Risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision — Hawkish Surprise

If the Fed signals additional rate hikes beyond the current 3.50%–3.75% band amid sticky inflation and a sub-200K jobless claims print, real yields will spike and gold's $4,000 psychological support could break decisively.