Gold

Key insight

4,203 consolidates inside a tight range; break above 4,250 round-number resistance opens a run toward 4,320. Failure at 4,150 re-exposes the 200-day MA near 3,980. Oil at 90.2 (+1.6%) amplifies inflation-hedge demand for gold today.

4,203 holds above the 4,150 breakout shelf — gold's multi-month uptrend intact with USD/JPY slipping to 156.9 and real yields still negative, supporting structural demand.

Main risk

USD Reversal / Real Yield Spike

Snap USD rally or 10-yr yield surge past 5% would undercut gold's zero-yield appeal; 4,150 support the first line to crack.