Gold

Key insight

$4,150 futures low vs. $4,179 spot: gold stabilising just above Aug 5 gap-fill zone. Break below $4,136 flips trend structure; hold above $4,233 pivot needed to neutralise bear momentum.

Trades at $4,179 — lowest since Aug 5 — as Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish stance drives Oct hike probability above 70% and Iran conflict sustains oil-inflation pressure.

Main risk

Fed Oct Rate Hike — CME >70% probability

Warsh signalled Fed has 'work to do'; >70% Oct hike priced in — real yields rising, smashing gold's carry advantage.