Gold

Gold has surrendered the critical $4,100 WGC fair-value level — now at $4,029 — and trades 28% below its January all-time high of $5,595; the FOMC decision on July 29 is the single most important near-term catalyst for direction.

Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between Fed rate-hike risk (bearish) and persistent geopolitical safe-haven demand from the Iran war, holding near the World Gold Council fair value of $4,100 but unable to reclaim it after Thursday's sharp 1.9% drop.

Main Risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision — Fed Hike Risk

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has softened hawkish language, but CME FedWatch still prices meaningful hike risk; a surprise July 29 hike or hawkish hold could send gold sharply below $4,000 toward the $3,850 swing low.