Gold

Gold is caught in a technical no-man's land — the $4,000 round number is the only meaningful floor while the 200-day MA at $4,340 acts as a heavy overhead cap; a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict could remove the one remaining safe-haven bid.

Gold is trading below both its 200-day MA (~$4,340) and 50-day MA (~$4,730), sitting near 9-month lows as markets price an 80% probability of a December Fed rate hike driven by energy-led inflation from the US-Iran conflict.

Main Risk

Fed rate hike repricing accelerated by Iran-driven oil shock

Markets now price an 80% chance of a December Fed rate hike (up from 73% a week ago), and Cleveland Fed President Hammack has explicitly endorsed further tightening — rising real yields are gold's most direct structural headwind at current levels.