Gold

Gold has shed ~28% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,595 and is now trading below the 200-day MA at ~$4,340, yet structural buyers — led by the PBoC's 20th consecutive monthly purchase — are providing a contested floor near the $4,000 psychological level.

Gold at $4,017.94 has broken below its 200-day MA (~$4,340) and is defending the psychologically critical $4,000 round number after losing over 3% last week, driven by US-Iran conflict escalation lifting oil prices and fuelling Fed rate-hike bets.

Main Risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Oil-Driven Inflation

Ongoing US strikes on Iranian targets have closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices and reinforcing market expectations of a September Fed rate hike (currently ~51% probability), which depresses real yields and the appeal of non-yielding gold.