Gold

Gold is caught in a toxic macro squeeze: the same geopolitical shock (US-Iran war) that historically lifts safe-haven demand is simultaneously stoking oil-driven inflation and rate-hike expectations, inverting gold's traditional safe-haven bid.

Gold is trading near nine-month lows at $4,007, well below the key 200-day MA at $4,340 and under pressure as US-Iran escalation drives oil-fuelled inflation fears, raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 53%.

Main Risk

FOMC September Rate Hike Repricing

Markets now price a 53% chance of a September Fed rate hike as oil surges 30% from July lows, and if this repricing accelerates post-July 29 FOMC meeting, real yields could spike and push gold toward the $3,850 demand zone.