FTSE 100

The FTSE 100's defensive outperformance story is under threat as Brent crude above $90/barrel fans inflation fears, keeping BoE rate cuts on a cautious path while energy-sector tailwinds compete with risk-off pressure on the broader index.

The FTSE 100 has broken back below the key 10,600 round-number resistance/prior close, pressured by US-Iran geopolitical escalation, Brent crude above $90, and domestic political uncertainty on PM Burnham's first day in office.

Main Risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption

A sixth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran has driven Brent crude above $90/barrel; any closure or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would spike oil to $100+ and trigger a hard risk-off equity selloff, potentially sending FTSE 100 below the 10,300 structural support.