FTSE 100

Andy Burnham becomes UK Prime Minister today (July 20), making cabinet appointments — especially the Chancellor nomination — the single biggest near-term market catalyst for gilts, sterling, and FTSE sentiment.

The FTSE 100 is consolidating just below the 10,600 Friday close, caught between defensive sector resilience and headwinds from US-Iran geopolitical risk, a new Labour government on Day 1, and the IMF's fiscal warning to incoming PM Andy Burnham.

Main Risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Risk

The US has conducted six consecutive nights of strikes on Iran; any closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would spike Brent crude well above $90, crush risk appetite, and hit FTSE consumer and industrial stocks hard despite energy sector gains.