Ethereum

ETH is trading well below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,953 and the Polymarket consensus year-end target of $2,000–$2,250 sits just 7–20% above current levels, making the near-term risk/reward asymmetric to the upside if BTC holds $64,000.

ETH is recovering above the key $1,850 prior consolidation floor, supported by rebounding ETF inflows, the SEC's FOIA settlement removing regulatory overhang, and Fundstrat flagging ETH as the most attractive way to express a crypto recovery thesis.

Main Risk

Vitalik Buterin ETH sell-offs & early-2026 supply overhang

Recurring large ETH sales by co-founder Vitalik Buterin were a key driver of early 2026's sharp price decline, and any resumption of whale-level selling near resistance at $1,920–$1,950 could cap the recovery rally.