DAX 40

Key insight

25,105 sits in no-man's-land: 50-day MA at 24,800 caps the downside, ATH at 25,650 caps the upside. Break of either defines the next 500-point move.

25,105 holds above the 50-day MA near 24,800 but fades from the September peak at 25,650 — range-bound with no clear breakout catalyst as quarter-end flows dominate.

Main risk

EUR/USD strength vs. DAX exporters

EUR/USD at 1.1325 compresses margins for auto and industrial exporters; a move to 1.15 would pressure Q3 earnings revisions lower.