DAX 40

Key insight

25,310 coiling under 25,500 resistance as quarter-end rebalancing hits; a close above 25,500 opens 26,000, a break of 25,000 targets 24,800 MA.

25,310 holds above 200-day MA near 24,800 but stalls below 25,500 swing resistance — quarter-end flows distorting direction; no clean breakout signal yet.

Main risk

Oil at $90 — energy cost shock

Oil +1.6% to $90.2 tightens margins for energy-intensive DAX industrials; sustained above $90 adds stagflation pressure to German manufacturing.