DAX 40

Key insight

25,500 psychological resistance tested — break and close above opens 26,000 as next target; failure risks pullback to 50-day MA near 24,800.

25,494 holds above the 25,000 round-number base; DAX has rallied ~25% YTD, sustained by ECB rate-cut cycle, resilient German exporters, and S&P 500 at record 7,683.

Main risk

Oil at $92 — cost-push inflation

Brent at $92 squeezes German industrial margins; ECB may pause cuts if CPI re-accelerates, capping DAX multiple expansion.