Bitcoin

BTC has recovered from its June trough but stalled precisely at the 50-month EMA (~$65,600) — the single most important structural level — while a newly hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh and ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tension continue to suppress risk appetite.

BTC is trading below the critical 50-month EMA at ~$65,600, which has flipped from long-term support to resistance, capping the recovery rally from the June low of $58,115 and keeping the macro downtrend from the $126,198 ATH intact.

Main Risk

Fed Rate Hike Risk under Chair Kevin Warsh

Markets currently price a ~40% chance of a rate hike at the July 28–29 FOMC; a hawkish surprise or a hot June CPI follow-through would crush risk assets and likely send BTC back toward the $58,115 June low.