Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, staging a tentative recovery at $65,308 — but the $65,471 resistance tested on July 15 remains the nearest bull/bear pivot, and a clean break above it with ETF inflow confirmation would be the first real sign of trend change.

BTC is clinging to the critical $65,000 round-number support after a recovery from sub-$63,000 lows, but Glassnode on-chain data has not confirmed a trend reversal, leaving the setup fragile ahead of key macro catalysts.

Main Risk

US Treasury Yield Spike + Kevin Warsh Fed Hawkishness

Newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (54-45 Senate vote, closest in modern history) carries a hawkish reputation; any signal of a rate hike — markets were pricing a 40% chance — would crush risk appetite and accelerate BTC ETF outflows similar to Thursday's $225M bleed.