Bitcoin

Bitcoin has reclaimed July green for the third consecutive year but now faces its most hostile seasonal window: August has posted a median loss of ~7.5–8% and the $60,965 neckline level is the key line in the sand — a close below it risks an accelerated slide toward the mid-$40,000s.

BTC is trading below both the 100-day EMA at $67,481 and the 200-day EMA at $73,133, keeping the medium-term trend corrective, while entering August — historically BTC's worst-performing calendar month — with rate hike fears and fading ETF inflows adding pressure.

Main Risk

Fed Chair Warsh Rate Hike Risk + August Seasonality

Kevin Warsh, confirmed Fed Chair in the closest Senate vote in modern history (54-45), has flagged lingering inflation risks, keeping rate hike fears alive and suppressing risk appetite heading into August — BTC's worst historical calendar month with a median return of -7.5%.