Bitcoin

With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, energy costs elevated, and markets pricing in a potential Fed rate hike later in 2026, BTC is caught between geopolitical risk-off pressure and a meaningful technical ceiling at the 50-month EMA ~$65,600 — the bull case only re-opens on a confirmed close above that level.

BTC at $62,980 is trading below its critical 50-month EMA resistance at ~$65,600 and has failed to reclaim that level after the June sell-off, confirming the intermediate downtrend remains intact.

Main Risk

Fed Rate Hike Repricing & Strait of Hormuz Closure

Markets are pricing a ~40% chance of a 2026 Fed rate hike as energy costs stay elevated with the Strait of Hormuz closed, a macro headwind that directly pressures risk assets including BTC.